---
title: "README -- Data and Code for: 'Insuring Peace: Index-based livestock insurance, droughts, and conflict'"
author: "Kai Gehring, Paul Schaudt"
date: 01/11/2026
contributors:
  - Kai Gehring
  - Paul Schaudt
output:
  html_document: default
---

Overview 
----------------------------

The code in this replication package processes the data for each data source, builds intermediate data sets, extracts the relevant information specifically for the project, combines it, and generates the results using R and Stata. The master file runs the code to generate the data and the exhibits in the main paper and the online appendix. The replicator should expect the code to run for about 4 to 7 days. Most of the individual scripts are fast (a few minutes), but a few scripts require a very long time to run. In order to facilitate replication, we provide files generated by the script that run very long and indicate them in the `IP_masterfile.do`.

Description of Files and Folder Structure 
-----------------------------------------

1. `IP_Readme.Rmd` is a markdown file that generates `Readme.html`.
 
2. `IP_Readme.html` provides the necessary information about the replication folder's structure, data sources and access, computational requirements, and how to replicate the results presented in the paper.

3. `/code/` contains all scripts to clean, build, merge, prepare the data for analysis, and replicate the figures and tables in the paper and online appendix.

    a. `/code/process_data/` contains the scripts that clean the raw data in `./input/`, save intermediate results in `/data/processed/`, and build the data sets used in the analysis, which are saved in `/data/analysis/`.
    b. `/code/analysis/` contains the Stata and R scripts that create all figures and tables in the paper and online appendix. 
    c. `/code/replication_requirement/` is an auxiliary folder with custom R functions used in multiple scripts. 
    
4. `/data/` contains data in various formats: raw, clean, and built data sets.

    a. `/data/input` contains raw data sets, original data that are processed and saved either in (`/processed/`), if they are further processed to generate data sets for the analysis, or in (`/analysis/`) if the dataset are loaded into scripts that generate figures or tables. The raw dataset are that we can share are located in their respective subfolder. Data with access restrictions is located in `/data/input/restricted`. Note, that restricted data should be placed in the corresponding subfolder and named as indicated in the local readme file contained in the subfolder for the code to run smoothly.
    b. `/data/original` contains historical atlas data which we georeferenced with Qgis. 
    c. `/data/processed` contains intermediate files. It also contains matches based on name matching and online research between ethnic grousp in Kenya and ACLED conflict actors (/data/processed/manual) and shapefiles generated in qgis within `./data/processed/manual/case. Note that we share the GPT classification of pastoral incidents in (/data/processed/GPT) and the neighborhood measures, which can be processed in the masterfile but the secipts run for several days using 20plus cores and above 200GB ram.
    d. `/data/analysis/` contains data sets containing the relevant variables for this project, sample creation, and merged panel for analysis.
    e. `/data/temp/` contains temporary files that are generated within a script and deleted at the end of the same script.
    
5. `LICENSE.txt`: a text file with the license information for the data and code in this replication package.
    
Data Availability and Provenance Statements
----------------------------

### Statement about Rights

- [X] I certify that the authors of the manuscript have legitimate access to and permission to use the data used in this manuscript. 

### License for Data 

The data is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. See [LICENSE.txt](LICENSE.txt) for details and [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en) for a summary.

### Summary of Availability

- [X] Some data **cannot be made** publicly available.

The data used to support the findings of this study comes from multiple data sources. Most of them are publicly available online and have been deposited in the QJE Dataverse repository ([https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/RQNYUW]). Some data require licenses or have restrictions on sharing the raw data. Each input data set and restrictions availability are described in more detail below, including detailed information on how to obtain the restricted data. For most of the restricted data we share intermediate files that are sufficiently aggregated to allow for redistribution.

---
Access to download from the original source is guaranteed by either providing a persistent link, using the Save a Page feature from Archive.org, pointing directly to the data download, or by providing the original link and directions on where to find more detailed instructions:
---

####  Data without Access Restrictions

#####  Drought proxies 

* TerraClimate: Monthly Climate and Climatic Water Balance
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
    - `/data/processed/gee_extracts/Terra/monthly_means_pr_pet_pdsi_aridity_(2000-2021).csvs`
  + source(s): Abatzoglou, John T., Solomon Z. Dobrowski, Sean A. Parks, and Katherine C. Hegewisch (2018)
  - donwload: [link](https://www.climatologylab.org/terraclimate.htmll)
    - original download date: 26-06-2024
    - last accessed: 26-06-2024
  + provided: yes (averages on cells)
  + notes: Image data processed via Google Earth Engine (GEE) on grid.
    * Code to compile in GEE is contained in the repkit:
    - `/code/process_data/00_GEE_files/Precipitation_evaporation_Terra.txt`   
    
* GPM: Monthly Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) v6
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
    -`./data/processed/gee_extracts/GMP/Kenya/Precip_GMP_Kenya(2000-2021).csvs` (multiple files)
    -`./data/processed/gee_extracts/GMP/EA_ee/Precip_GMP_(2000-2021).csvs` (multiple files)
  + source(s): Huffman, George J., Erich F. Stocker, David T. Bolvin, Eric J. Nelkin, Jackson Tan (2022) 
  - donwload: [link](https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/GPM_3IMERGM_07/summary)
    - original download date: 26-06-2024
    - last accessed: 26-06-2024
  + provided: yes  (averages on cells)
  + notes: Image data processed via Google Earth Engine (GEE) on grid. 
    * Code to compile in GEE is contained in the repkit:
    - `/code/process_data/00_GEE_files/Precipitation_GMP_Kenya.txt`
    - `/code/process_data/00_GEE_files/Precipitation_GMP_EA.txt` 

* Dry Matter Productivity 1999-2020 (raster 1 km), global, 10-daily – version 2
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
    - `./data/input/phytomass/`
  + source(s): European Union's Copernicus Land Monitoring Service information (2018)
  - download: [link](https://land.copernicus.eu/en/products/vegetation/dry-matter-productivity-v2-0-1km)
    - original download date: 21-11-2022
    - last accessed: 21-11-2022
  + provided: yes
    
#####  Conflict data   
* UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED) Global version 22.1:
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
    - `./data/input/ged/GEDEvent_v22_1.dta`
  + source(s): Davies, Shawn, Garoun Engström, Therése Pettersson, and Magnus Öberg (2025); Sundberg, Ralph, Erik Melander (2013)
  - download: [link](https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/olddw.html)
    - original download date: 11-07-2022
    - last accessed: 11-07-2022
  + provided: yes


##### Location data  
* Murdock Ethnographic Atlas Shapefile V1:
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
    - `./data/input/murdock/Murdock_EA_2011_vkZ_valid.gpkg`
  + source(s): Murdock (1959); Nunn, Nathan (2008) 
  - donwload: [link](https://nathannunn.arts.ubc.ca/data/)
      - original download date: 22-11-2022
      - last accessed: 22-11-2022
  + provided: yes 
  + notes: Originally we downloaded the shapefile form the Havard World map. This version is now hosted under (https://worldmap.maps.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html) with the layer name Murdock HRAF 1959.

* PRIO-GRID 2.0:
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
    -`./data/input/prio_grid/priogrid_cell.(dbf, prj, qpj, shx, shp)`
    -`./data/input/prio_grid/PRIO-GRID Static Variables - 2022-11-14.csv` (not used)
  + source(s): Tollefsen, Andreas Forø, Håvard Strand, and Halvard Buhaug (2012)
  - donwload: [link](https://grid.prio.org/#/)
    - original download date: 30-11-2011
    - last accessed: 16-12-2025
  + provided: yes

* Digital elevation model of Kenya:       
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
    - `./data/input/topographic_map_Kenya/w001001.adf`
  + source(s):  Farr, Tom G., Paul A. Rosen, Edward Caro, Robert Crippen, Riley Duren, Scott Hensley, Michael Kobrick, Mimi Paller, Ernesto Rodriguez, Ladislav Roth, David Seal, Scott Shaffer, Joanne Shimada, Jeffrey Umland, Marian Werner, Michael Oskin, Douglas Burbank, Douglas Alsdorf
  - download: [link](https://www.wri.org/data/kenya-gis-data)
    - original download date: 12-07-2024
    - last accessed: 12-07-2024
  + provided: yes
  + notes: Kenya's digital elevation model is coded at 250-meter resolution
  
* Landsat land cover changes (LCC)
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
    - `./data/input/landuse/geonode__kenyalandcover2015.(tif, tif.aux.xml, tif.aux.xml, tif.ovr, ovr.aux.xml)`
  + source(s): ICPAC, IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (2017)
  - download: [link](https://geoportal.icpac.net/layers/kenyalandcover2015:geonode:kenyalandcover2015) 
    - original download date:29-11-2021
    - last accessed: 18-04-2023
  + provided: yes
 
* ESA High Resolution Land Cover Climate Change Initiative (High_Resolution_Land_Cover_cci): High Resolution Land Cover and Land Cover Change Maps in Africa (Eastern Sahel region) at 30m spatial resolution in GeoTiff format, 1990-2019, v1.2
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
    - `./data/input/ESA_landcover/landcover_2000_2022/ESACCI-LC-L4-LCCS-Map-300m-P1Y-2000-v2.0.7cds.area-subset.5.2.42.5.-5.2.33.2.nc`
    - `./data/input/ESA_landcover/landcover_2000_2022/C3S-LC-L4-LCCS-Map-300m-P1Y-2020-v2.1.1.area-subset.5.2.42.5.-5.2.33.2.nc`
  + source(s): Bruzzone, L., Bovolo, F.,Amodio, A., Brovelli, M.A., Corsi, M., Defourny, P., Domingo, C., Gamba, P., Kolitzus, D., Lamarche, C., Moser, G., Ottlé, C., Perantoni, G., Pesquer, L., Zanetti, M. (2024)
  - download: [link](https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/a3fb75aa46db4711ab587f3fa3ca01fe)
      - original download date: 24-06-2025
      - last accessed: 24-06-2025
  + provided: yes 
  
* Harmonized World Soil Database v 1.2
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
      - `./data/input/HWSD/sq1.asc`
      - `./data/input/HWSD/sq2.asc` 
      - `./data/input/HWSD/sq3.asc`
      - `./data/input/HWSD/sq4.asc`
      - `./data/input/HWSD/sq5.asc`
      - `./data/input/HWSD/sq6.asc`
      - `./data/input/HWSD/sq7.asc` 
    + source(s): Fischer, Günther, Freddy Nachtergaele, Sylvia Prieler, Harrij T. van Velthuizen, Luc Verelst, David Wiberg (2008) 
    - download: [link](https://www.fao.org/soils-portal/data-hub/soil-maps-and-databases/harmonized-world-soil-database-v12/en/)
      - original download date: 25-11-2022
      - last accessed: 25-11-2022
    + provided: yes 
    
* Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution V1
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
      - `./data/input/climate_zones/Beck_KG_V1_present_0p083.tif`                 
  + source(s):  Beck, Hylke E., Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Tim R. McVicar, Noemi Vergopolan, Alexis Berg, Eric F. Wood (2018) 
  - download: [link](https://www.gloh2o.org/koppen/)
    - original download date: 25-11-2022
    - last accessed: 25-11-2022
  + provided: yes       
  
* GHSL: Global Human Settlement Layer 
  + data file(s): `./data/processed/gee_extracts/GHSL/population_ghsl_2000.csv`
  + source(s): Schiavina, Marcello, MacManus, Kytt J and Freire, Sergio (2019)
  - download: [link](https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/jrc-ghsl-ghs_pop_gpw4_globe_r2015a/)   
    - original download date: 11-07-2024
    - last accessed:  11-07-2024
  + provided: yes (averages on cells)
  + notes: Image data processed via Google Earth Engine (GEE) on grid.
    * Code to compile in GEE is contained in the repkit:
    - `/code/process_data/00_GEE_files/Population_ghsl.txt`)   

* The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa 
  + data file(s) : `data/input/mp_2016`
  + source(s): Michalopoulos, Stelios, Elias Papaioannou (2016)
    - downloaded via webscraping [link](https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/112954/version/V1/view) 
    - original download date: 9-07-2024
    - last accessed:8-12-2025
  + provided: yes.
  
##### Asset and financial data    
* Geocoded Official Development Assistance Dataset(GODAD) 
  + data file(s) or folder(s): 
    - `./data/input/GODAD/GODAD Workshop Pre-releases/GODAD_projectlevel.dta`  
    - `./data/input/GODAD/GODAD Workshop Pre-releases/GODAD_adm1.(csv,dta)`    (not used)
    - `./data/input/GODAD/GODAD Workshop Pre-releases/GODAD_adm2.(csv,dta)`    (not used)
    - `./data/input/GODAD/GODAD Workshop Pre-releases/GODAD_projectlevel.csv`  (not used)
  + source(s): Bomprezzi, Pietro, Axel Dreher, Andreas Fuchs, Teresa Hailer, Andreas Kammerlander, Lennart C. Kaplan, Silvia Marchesi, Tania Masi, Charlotte Robert, Kerstin Unfried (2024)
  - download: [link](https://godad.uni-goettingen.de/data/)
    - original download date: 06-06-2025
    - last accessed: 06-06-2025
  + provided: yes
  + notes: We use the last pre-release version.

* KilimoSTAT Stock of cattle & livestock
  + data file(s) or folder(s): 
    - `./data/input/livestock_numbers/Cattle_Kenya_Counties_2012-2021_KilimoSTAT.csv`
  + source(s): KilimoSTAT (Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development)
  - download: [link](https://statistics.kilimo.go.ke/en/cd_s_livestock/)
    - original download date: 03-04-2024
    - last accessed: 03-04-2024
  + provided: yes
  + notes: We manually downloaded the data from their homepage. Note that the homepage has multiple downtimes per week.

#### Original data
* Murdock-tribe association:
  + data file(s): 
    -  `./data/processed/manual/murdock_tribe_table.csv`
    -  `./data/processed/manual/ACLED_murdock_unmatched_name1_processed_NEW..csv`
    -  `./data/processed/manual/ACLED_murdock_unmatched_name2_processed_NEW.csv`
    -  `./data/processed/manual/murdock_tribe_table_processed.csv`    (not used)
    -  `./data/processed/manual/tribe_match_homeland.dta`    
  + source(s): We matched Murdock groups to associated tribes.
  + provided: yes.
    
* Historical land use 
  + data file(s): 
    - `./data/original/hist_landuse/Kenya_hist_landuse.(shp, cpg, dbf, prj, qpj, sbn, sbx, shx)`
  + source(s): Historical land use map of Kenya (1984) which has been georeferences and turned into a shapefile by us.
  - download: [link](https://esdac.jrc.ec.europa.eu/content/land-use-map-kenya)
    - original download date: 09-08-2022
    - last accessed: 16-12-2025
  + provided: yes.   
  + notes: The original image and the qgis project for georeferencing are contained in the same folder as the shapefile.


#### Data with Access Restrictions

##### Conflict data
* Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) Events:
  + data file(s): 
    - `./data/input/restricted/acled/1997-01-01-2021-12-31-Kenya.csv` 
    - `./data/input/restricted/acled/2000-01-01-2022-12-31-EA.csv` 
  + source(s): Raleigh et al (2023)
    - download: [link](https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool/)
    - original download date: 30-06-2022
    - last accessed: 03-04-2024
  + provided: no (aggregated data at cell level are shared).
  + notes: ACLED can be downloaded after registering at their homepage. You can use the link provided above.
    
* Social Conflict Analysis Database (SCAD):
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
    -`./data/input/scad/SCAD2018Africa_Final.csv`
  + source(s): Salehyan, Idean, Cullen S. Hendrix, Jesse Hamner, Christina Case, Christopher Linebarger, Emily Stull, and Jennifer Williams (2012)
  - download [link](https://www.strausscenter.org/ccaps-research-areas/social-conflict/database/)
    - original download date: 24-04-2023
    - last accessed: 24-04-2023
  + provided: no, (aggregated data at cell level are shared).
  + notes: SCAD can be freely downloaded following the link above.
  
##### IBLI data
* IBLI Units (Kenya):
  + data file(s): 
    - `./data/input/restricted/IBLI_IU_2017/IBLI.PAYOUTS.KENYAnETHIOPIA.SRS2015_LRS2020.20200809.xlsx`
    - `./data/input/restricted/IBLI_IU_2017/KLIP_Units2017_ext.(shp, cpg, dbf, prj, sbn, sbx, shp.xml, shx)`
    - `./data/input/restricted/IBLI_IU_2017/KLIP_Units2017_ext (1).cpg`  (not used)
  + source(s): International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI); Fava, Francesco, Nathaniel Jensen, James Sina, Andrew Mude, Barry Maher (2021) 
  + provided: no, , we do not have distribution rights. However, we share aggregated data at cell level (which is allowed).
  + notes: You can request the IBLI shapefiles for academic use either form ILRI, Chris Barett or Nathan Jensen. 
    
* IBLI Units (Ethiopia):
  + data file(s): 
   - `./data/input/restricted/IBLI_IU_ETH/BORANA.UAIA.2022.(shx, shp, sbx, sbn, prj, dbf)`  (not used)
   - `./data/input/restricted/IBLI_IU_ETH/BORANA.UAI_WGS84.shx`  (not used)
   - `./data/input/restricted/IBLI_IU_ETH/borana_ui.gpkg`
  + source(s): International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)
  + provided: no, , we do not have distribution rights. However, we share aggregated data at cell level (which is allowed).
  + notes: You can request the IBLI shapefiles for academic use either form ILRI, Chris Barett or Nathan Jensen. 
  
##### Survey data
* Afrobarometer (Kenya)
    + data file(s): 
      - `./data/input/restricted/afrobarometer/afb_r3` 
      - `./data/input/restricted/afrobarometer/afb_r4` 
      - `./data/input/restricted/afrobarometer/afb_r5` 
      - `./data/input/restricted/afrobarometer/afb_r6` 
      - `./data/input/restricted/afrobarometer/afb_r7` 
      - `./data/input/restricted/afrobarometer/afb_r8` 
      - `data/input/restricted/afrobarometer/aiddata/csvs_aiddata/`
    + source(s): Afrobarometer (https://www.afrobarometer.org/)
      - notes: Files are restricted. A replicator can replicate our Afrobarometer data sets by running codefiles `./code/process_data/04a_assemble_afrobarometer_waves.R`, `./code/process_data/04b_generate_repeated_xsec_afb.do`, and `./code/process_data/04c_merge_afrobarometer_grid.R` after obtaining the geocoded verisons of Afrobarometer round 3 to 8 from [Download Link](https://www.afrobarometer.org/).
    + provided: no, we do not have distribution rights. 
    + notes: The Afrobarometer surveys can be freely downloaded on the homepage of the Afrobarometer. To obtain the geocodes you need to wirte a application with Afrobarometer. Geocodes prior to wave 7 can be obtain via an access request from AidData.
    
* KAMIS: Kenya Agricultural Market Information System
  + data file(s): 
    - `./data/input/restricted/market_prices/agriculture/ken_dry_maize_market_prices.xlsx`
    - `./data/input/restricted/market_prices/agriculture/ken_wheat_market_prices.xlsx`
    - `./data/input/restricted/market_prices/livestock/ken_camel_daily_json.txt`   
    - `./data/input/restricted/market_prices/livestock/ken_camel_json.txt`
    - `./data/input/restricted/market_prices/livestock/ken_cattle_daily_json.txt`   
    - `./data/input/restricted/market_prices/livestock/ken_cattle_json.txt`
    - `./data/input/restricted/market_prices/livestock/ken_goat_daily_json.txt`      
    - `./data/input/restricted/market_prices/livestock/ken_goat_json.txt`
    - `./data/input/restricted/market_prices/livestock/ken_sheep_daily_json.txt`    
    - `./data/input/restricted/market_prices/livestock/ken_sheep_json.txt`    
  + source(s) : Kenyan Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (2024) 
  - download: [link](https://web.archive.org/web/20241106133537/https://amis.co.ke/site/market)
    - original download date: 06-05-2024
    - last accessed: 06-05-2024
  + provided: no, we do not have distribution rights. 
  + notes: Data can be accessed via provided link using wayback mashine. 

* LMISKE: Livestock Market Information System Kenya
  + data file(s) : `data/input/restricted/market_prices/livestock`
  + source(s): Kenyan Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (2024) 
    - downloaded via webscraping [link] https://web.archive.org/web/20241104150655/http://www.lmiske.go.ke/lmis/livestock.htm?action=getLivestockParameters
    - original download date: 23-10-2024
    - last accessed: 23-10-2024
  + provided: no, we do not have distribution rights. 
  + notes: Data can be accessed via provided link using wayback mashine. 

* Transhumant pastoralism, climate change, and conflict in Africa
  + data file(s) : `data/input/MG_NN_THPCCC_replication_folder`
  + source(s): McGuirk, Eoin F., Nathan Nunn (2025)
    - downloaded via webscraping [link] https://academic.oup.com/restud/article/92/1/404/7627150?login=true
    - original download date: 19-01-2024
    - last accessed:8-12-2025
  + provided: yes.  


##### Location and financial data
    
* Cell phone coverage
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
      - `./data/input/restricted/cellphone/subset_kenya.dta`
    + source(s): Ackermann, Klaus, Sefa A. Churchill, and Russell Smyth (2021)
    - download: [link](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268121001852#ec-research-data) (available upon request)
      - original download date: 16-05-2024
      - last accessed: 16-05-2024
    + provided: no, (aggregated data on our cells is provided). 
    + notes: Original data can be obtained by requesting it from the authors of Ackermann et al. (2021). 

* Administrative units:
    + data file(s): 
      - geospatial data set (country borders): `./data/input/adm_units/gadm40_KEN_0.(cpg,dbf,prj,shp,shx)`
      - geospatial data set (1nd layer): `./data/input/adm_units/gadm40_KEN_1.(cpg,dbf,prj,shp,shx)`       
      - geospatial data set (2nd layer): `./data/input/adm_units/gadm40_KEN_2.(cpg,dbf,prj,shp,shx)`
    + source(s):  Global Administrative Areas (2022) [Download Link](https://gadm.org/download_country40.html).
        - original download date: 30-06-2022
        - last accessed:8-12-2025
    + provided: no, (aggregated data at cell level are shared).
    + notes: Data can be freely downloaded at (https://gadm.org).
 
* Terrestrial Ecoregions World Map (WWF GLOBIL)
  + data file(s) or folder(s):
    - `./data/input/biomes/wwf_terr_ecos.(dbf, lyr, prj, sbn, shp, shp,xml, shx)`
    - `./data/input/biomes/terr_biomes.(lyr)`  (not used)
  + source(s): World Wide Fund for Nature (2020)
  - download: [link](https://globil.panda.org/maps/e95f21ec08994c76bf234ffd42f64189/explore)
    - original download date: 25-11-2022
    - last accessed: 25-11-2022
  * provided: no, (aggregated data at cell level are shared).
  * notes: Data can be freely downloaded at (https://globil-panda.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/panda::wwf-global-200-ecoregions/explore?layer=0).
  
* World Bank Aid (v1.4.2)
  + data file(s) or folder(s): 
    - `./data/input/restricted/WB_aid/projects.csv`
    - `./data/input/restricted/WB_aid/locations.csv`
  + source(s): AidData (2017)
  + download: [link](https://www.aiddata.org/data/world-bank-geocoded-research-release-level-1-v1-4-2)
    - original download date: 20-03-2017
    - last accessed: 06-01-2024
  + provided: no, (aggregated on grid level)
  + notes: Data can be downloaded on (https://geo.aiddata.org/#!/)
    
  
Computational requirements
---------------------------

### Software Requirements

- Stata (code was last run with version 19.0, version 15.0 or higher is required) with the following user-written packages installed:

    - `acreg` (as of 2024-05-01) 
    - `grstyle` (as of 2024-05-01) 
    - `palettes` (as of 2024-05-01) 
    - `colrspace` (as of 2024-05-01) 
    - `moremata` (as of 2024-05-01)
    - `coefplot` (as of 2024-05-01) 
    - `eventstudyinteract` (as of 2024-05-01)
    - `avar` (as of 2024-05-01)
    - `outreg` (as of 2024-05-01)
    - `kountry` (as of 2024-05-01)
    - `dataout` (as of 2024-05-01)
    - `outreg2` (as of 2024-05-01)
    - `reghdfe` (as of 2024-05-01)
    - `ivreghdfe` (as of 2024-05-01)     
    - `ftools` (as of 2024-05-01)
    - `rscript` (as of 2024-05-01)   
    - `frmttable` (as of 2024-05-01) 
    
  - `./code/IP_masterfile.do` will set all relevant paths, globals and installs the required stata ado-files and r-packages form `./code/replication_requirements/intall_packages.R`. (Always open Stata using this file. You may skip certain files, but you need to run them via `./code/masterfile.do` after executing the header.) Expceptions to this rule are indicated within `IP_masterfile.do`. Also note that if you want to compile the Google Earth Engine outputs yourself, you need to create an account, and upload the files contained in `/code/process_data/00_GEE_files` to your GEE account along with the required inputs (the Kenya and East Africa grid generates in `/code/process_data/00a_process_grid_admunit_murdock_distances`.)

- R (code was last run with version 4.5.1. Note that you you need to install `rtools` if you are running this on Windows.) with the following libraries (and their dependencies) installed:

  - ` checkmate (2.3.3)`  
  - ` countrycode (1.6.1)`
  - ` cowplot (1.2.0)`      
  - ` curl (6.4.0)`           
  - ` data.table (1.17.8)`   
  - ` dismo (1.3.16)`        
  - ` doParallel (1.0.17)`   
  - ` dplyr (1.1.4)`         
  - ` elevatr (0.99.0)`    
  - ` exactextractr (0.10.0)`
  - ` foreach (1.5.2)`       
  - ` foreign (0.8.90)`     
  - ` future.apply (1.20.0)` 
  - ` geodata (0.6.2)`      
  - ` geonames (0.999)`     
  - ` ggmap (4.0.2)`         
  - ` ggplot2 (3.5.2)`   
  - ` ggpubr (0.6.2)`     
  - ` grDevices (4.5.1)`   
  - ` grid (4.5.1)`       
  - ` gridExtra (2.3)`    
  - ` haven (2.5.5)`     
  - ` Hmisc (5.2.3)`      
  - ` janitor (2.2.1)`       
  - ` jsonlite (2.0.0)`  
  - ` knitr (1.50)`        
  - ` leastcostpath (2.0.13)`
  - ` lubridate (1.9.4)`   
  - ` lwgeom (0.2.14)`    
  - ` mapproj (1.2.12)`   
  - ` maps (3.4.3)`      
  - ` methods (4.5.1)`       
  - ` movecost (2.1)`    
  - ` pacman (0.5.1)`    
  - ` parallel (4.5.1)`    
  - ` pbapply (1.7.2)`   
  - ` progress (1.2.3)`  
  - ` progressr (0.15.1)`  
  - ` purrr (1.1.0)`    
  - ` R.utils (2.13.0)`      
  - ` raster (3.6.32)`   
  - ` RColorBrewer (1.1.3)`  
  - ` readstata13 (0.11.0)`  
  - ` readxl (1.4.5)`      
  - ` runner (0.4.5)`      
  - ` sf (1.0.21)`        
  - ` sp (2.2.0)`        
  - ` stringi (1.8.7)`       
  - ` stringr (1.5.1)`  
  - ` terra (1.8.54)`     
  - ` tidygeocoder (1.0.6)`  
  - ` tidyr (1.3.1)`       
  - ` tidyverse (2.0.0)`   
  - ` tmap (4.2.1)`        
  - ` tmaptools (3.1)`      
  - ` units (0.8.7)`         
  - ` XML (3.99.0.18)`   
  - ` xtable (1.8.4)`  
  
  -   - the file `/intall_package_requirements.R` will install all libraries above and their dependencies. 
  
  <!-- Packages are automatically sourced within any R script in the project. -->

### Memory and runtime requirements

The code was last run on an **HP Z8 Workstation Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6248R CPU @ 3.00GHz (2.99 GHz) 24-Cores (48-Threads); 256GB RAM; 64-bit operating system, x64-based processor**. 

Some portions of the code are intensive on RAM and may not run in machines with less than 32GB of RAM.

Some portions of the code run in parallel with intensive CPU use. The code was run on Stata 19 MP with 4 cores. Note that due to tie breaking during sorting, the code may not be fully reproducible on machines with different number of cores, leading to a slightly different number of observations in the sample of cities in reformed regions and differences after the 4th decimal in the regression output. Results using Stata 19 MP with 4 cores and the sort order seed set in the code will be exact.

Total time of processing on a modern desktop should take approximately 4-7 days, depending on the machine.

The majority of the individual scripts are fast (few seconds or minutes) but there a few scripts that require more time of processing (mostly the processing of the neighborhood measures and the randomization).

Total disk size (expected) to be consumed by the project considering everything (including intermediate data set, libraries, etc.) in an uncompressed format is approximately 51GB (~8100 files).

Description of programs/code
----------------------------

`/code/IP_masterfile.do`:

- Processes the input data contained in `/data/input/` and saves them in `/data/processed/`.
- Assembles the main data sets from `/data/processed/` and saves them in `/data/analysis/`. 
- Reproduces all exhibits in the main paper (18 files) and appendix (32 files). The table below shows which file reproduces which exhibit.


### License for Code 

The code is licensed under a Modified BSD License. See [LICENSE.txt](LICENSE.txt) for details.


Instructions to Replicators 
---------------------------

- Download replication package.
- Unzip `IP_Replication.zip`  
- Run `/code/IP_masterfile.do` to run all Stata and R scripts in sequence.


List of tables and programs 
---------------------------

The provided code reproduces:

- [X] All tables and figures in the paper , exhibits using data with access restrictions are flagged with (RA). Data processing files using restricted data are flagged in the `/code/IP_masterfile.do`


|Fig,/Table| Script in "/code/analysis"                           | Output in "figures_tables/"                    | Notes                                                                                         |
|------------|----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|Main paper:|                                                     |                                                |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 1   |                                                      | F1_contract_cover.pdf                          |  manually created concept figure                                                              |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 2   | F2_case_study.R (RA)                                      | F2a_study_area.png                             |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | F2b_conflict_encounter.png                     |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | F2c_drought_ibli_study_area.png                |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 3   | F3_rain_deficit_and_ibli_payout.R                    | F3a_Rain_ibli_1617.png                         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | F3b_SRDS_1617_payouts.png                      |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 4   | F4_neighborhood_weight.R                             | F4_study_area.png                              |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 5   | F5a_rollout_ibli.R                                   | F5a_spatial_cover.png                          |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F5b_IBLI_balance_test.do                             | F5b_balancing_sample_ibli.pdf                  |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F5c_rain_phytomass_trends.do                         | F5c_rain_time.pdf                              |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F5d_selection_conflict_rain_elasticity.do            | F5d_selection_elasticity.pdf                   |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F5ef_conflict_cover_ibli.do                          | F5e_conflict_ibli.pdf                          |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F5ef_conflict_cover_ibli.do                          | F5f_conflict_trends_ibli_neigh.pdf             |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 6   | F6a_controls_cell.do                                 | F6a_cell_controls.pdf                          |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F6b_placebo.do                                       | F6b_placebo.pdf                                |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F6c_ibli_random_rollout.do                           | F6c_IBLI_randomization.pdf                     |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 7   | F7a_robustness_overview.do                           | F7a_robustness_overview.pdf                    |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F7b_robustness_overview.do                           | F7b_robustness_overview.pdf                    |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 8   | F8a_EA_sample.R                                      | F8a_EA_sample.png                              |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F8b_EA_results.do                                    | F8b_EA_results.pdf                             |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 9   | F9_mixed_landuse_and_settlement_maps.R               | F9a_close_ethnic_border.png                    |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | F9b_mix_land_use.png                           |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 10  | F10a_cattle_distribution.R                            | F10a_cattle_size.png                           |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F10b_herd_size.do                                    | F10b_ibli_cattle.pdf                           |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 11  | F11a_livestock_markets.R     (RA)                          | F11a_livestock_markets.png                     |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F11b_asset_shock.do                                  | F11b_asset_shock_results.pdf                   |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 12  | F12a_afb_data.R            (RA)                            | F12a_afb_data.png                              |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F12b_income_shock_afb      (RA)                            | F12b_income_shock_results.pdf                  |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. 13  | F13a_conflict_homeland_dist.R                        | F13a_turkana_example.png                       |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          | F13b_migration_results.do                            | F13b_mig_results.pdf                           |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Tab.1    | Table1_main_results.do                               | Table1_main_results.(tex,txt)                  |                                                                                               |    
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Tab.2    | Table2_hsnp_aid.do                                   | Table2_relief.(tex,txt)                        |                                                                                               |  
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Tab.3    | Table3_triple_interaction.do                         | Table3_triple_int.(tex,txt)                    |                                                                                               |  
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|

|Online appendix:|                                                |                                                |                                                                                               |                  
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-1 |                                                      | app_A/FA1a_KFSSG_2011_fig_1_3.jpg              |  Figure 1.3 in Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG, 2012)                      |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA1b_ILRI_fig2.jpg                       |  Figure 2 in Flintan et al. (2013)                                                   |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA1c_Munyao_Barrett_2007.png             |  Figure 1 Munyao and Barrett (2007)                                                           |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-2 | app_A/FA2_case_study_ged.R     (RA)                        | app_A/FA2a_study_area_ged.png                  |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA2b_study_area_scad.png                 |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-3 | app_A/FA3_spatial_cover_controls_balancing.R         | app_A/FA3a_desert_shrubland.png                |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA3b_arid_climate.png                    |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA3c_Rshare.png                          |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA3d_log_pop.png                         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA3e_dist_border.png                     |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA3f_dist_capital.png                    |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-4 | app_A/FA4_spatial_cover_soil_controls.R              | app_A/FA4_nutrient_availability.png            |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA4_retention_capacity.png               |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA4_rooting_conditions.png               |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA4_oxygen_availability.png              |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA4_excess_salt.png                      |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA4_toxicity.png                         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA4_workability.png                      |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-5 | app_A/FA5_A6_conflict_macro_trends.do                | app_A/FA5a_conflict_trends_ibli_raw.pdf        |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA5b_conflict_trends_ibli_indexed.pdf    |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-6 | app_A/FA5_A6_conflict_macro_trends.do                | app_A/FA6_conflict_trends_cluster1.pdf         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA6_conflict_trends_cluster2.pdf         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA6_conflict_trends_cluster3.pdf         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA6_conflict_trends_cluster4.pdf         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA6_conflict_trends_cluster5.pdf         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-7 | app_A/FA7_hsnp_rollout.R                             | app_A/FA7_HSNP_rollout.png                     |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-8 | app_A/FA8_aid_maps.R                                 | app_A/FA8a_aid_agri_pre.png                    |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA8b_aid_agri_post.png                   |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA8c_aid_pre.png                         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA8d_aid_post.png                        |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA8e_ln_aid_commitments_pre.png          |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA8f_ln_aid_commitments_post.png         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA8g_aid_a_godad_pre.png                 |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA8h_aid_a_godad_post.png                |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA8i_ln_aid_commit_godad_pre.png         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_A/FA8j_ln_aid_commit_godad_post.png        |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-9 | app_A/FA9_rollout_ibli_EA.R                          | app_A/FA9_Kenya_EA.png                         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-10 | app_A/FA10_lcp_plots.R                              | app_A/FA10_lcp.png                             |Panel A needs to be exported manually (please run the script directly in R)                    | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA10b_lcp.png                            |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA10c_dist.png                           |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-11 | app_A/FA11_cell_sizes.R                             | app_A/FA11_cell_10.png                         |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA11_cell_20.png                         |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA11_cell_30.png                         |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA11_cell_40.png                         |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA11_cell_50.png                         |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA11_cell_100.png                        |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-12 | app_A/FA12_pastsuit_landcover.R                     | app_A/FA12a_agri_pastoral_suit.png             |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA12b_grass_crop_transition.png          |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-13 | app_A/FA13_mixed_landuse_and_settlement_maps.R      | app_A/FA13a_close_cltgr_border.png             |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA13b_close_ethnic_not_cltgr_border.png  |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-14 | app_A/FA14_AFB_IBLI_cover.R    (RA)                       | app_A/FA14_afb_w3.png                          |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA14_afb_w4.png                          |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA14_afb_w5.png                          |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA14_afb_w6.png                          |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA14_afb_w7.png                          |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|           |                                                     | app_A/FA14_afb_w8.png                          |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. A-15 | app_A/FA15_conflict_homelands.do                    | app_A/FA15_conflict_homelands_drought.pdf      |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Tab. A-1  | app_A/TA1_summary_stats.do                          | app_A/TA1a_summary_xsec.tex                    |                                                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Tab. A-2  |                                                     | app_A/TA2_events_acled.tex                     | Manually generated based on ACLED codebook (Raleigh, Clionadh, Roundabeh Kishi, and Andrew Linke, 2023)                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Tab. A-3  |  app_A/TA3_most_frequent_actors_pastoral.R     (RA)                                              | app_A/TA3_actors_pastoralists.tex              |                                                               |
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Tab. A-4  | app_A/TA4_pastoral_incident_classification.do  (RA)       | app_A/TA4_pastoral_incidents_corr.tex          |                                                                                                |                                      
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Tab. A-5  | app_A/TA5_correlation_drought_proxy.do              | app_A/TA5a_correlations_weather_cell.tex       |                                                                                                |                                      
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Tab. A-6  | app_A/TA6_homeland_actor_matches.do                 | app_A/TA6_ethnic_match.tex                     |                                                                                                |                                      
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| LIST A-1  | app_A/LA1_murdock_pastoral_match.do                 | app_A/LA1_murdock_pastoral.tex                 |                                                                                                 |                                      
|-----------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. B-1 | app_B/FB1_variation_vars_of_interest.R               | app_B/FB1a_rain_neigh_1415.png                 |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB1b_IBLI_neigh_1415.png                 |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB1c_inter_neigh_1415.png                |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB1d_rain_neigh_1516.png                 |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB1e_IBLI_neigh_1516.png                 |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB1f_inter_neigh_1516.png                |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. B-2 | app_B/FB2_rain_trends_by_ibli.do                     | app_B/FB2_qibli_rain.pdf                       |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. B-3 | app_B/FB3_conflict_trends_pretreat_by_ibli.do        | app_B/FB3_pred_conflict_trends_ibli.pdf        |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. B-4 | app_B/FB4_event_study_rain_deficit.do                | app_B/FB4_drought_EV.pdf                       |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. B-5 | app_B/FB5_event_study_ibli.do                        | app_B/FB5_IBLI_EV.pdf                          |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. B-6 | app_B/FB6_rain_ibli_quintiles.do                     | app_B/FB6a_rain_bins.pdf                       |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB6b_rain_bins_ibli.pdf                  |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB6c_ibli_rain_bins.pdf                  |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. B-7 | app_B/FB7_control_lead_ibli.do                       | app_B/FB7_control_ibli_leads.pdf               |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Fig. B-8 | app_B/FB8_alt_conflict_measures.do                   | app_B/FB8a_alt_dv_delta_1.pdf                  |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB8b_alt_dv_delta_3.pdf                  |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Fig. B-9 | app_B/FB9_pastoral_conflict.do                       | app_B/FB9a_pastoral_conflict.pdf               |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB9b_pastoral_mitigation.pdf             |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Fig. B-10 | app_B/FB10_conflict_intensive_margin.do             | app_B/FB10a_inci_fatal_delta_1.pdf             |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB10b_inci_fatal_delta_3.pdf             |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|  
| Fig. B-11 | app_B/FB11_12_distance_decay_and_cutoff.do          | app_B/FB11a_delta_1_decay.pdf                  |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB11b_delta_3_decay.pdf                  |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|  
| Fig. B-12 | app_B/FB11_12_distance_decay_and_cutoff.do          | app_B/FB12a_delta_1_cutoff.pdf                 |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_B/FB12b_delta_3_cutoff.pdf                 |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|  
| Fig. B-13 | app_B/FB13_se_sensitivity.do                        | app_B/FB13_spatial_se_ols.pdf                  |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Fig. B-14 | app_B/FB14_larger_cells.do                          | app_B/FB14_LG_I_inci_delta_3.pdf               |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Fig. B-15 | app_B/FB15_triple_interaction_cultural.do           | app_B/FB15_tripple_int_cltr.pdf                |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|          
| Tab. B-1  | app_B/TB1_serial_correlation.do                     | app_B/TB1_serial_correlation.(tex,txt)         |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-2  | Table1_main_results.do                              | app_B/TB2_main_results_cell.(tex,txt)          |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-3 | app_B/TB3_controls_neighborhood.do                   | app_B/TB3_controls_neighborhood.(tex,txt)      |                                                                                               |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-4 | app_B/TB4_controls_soil_cell.do                      | app_B/TB4_controls_soil_cell(tex,txt)          |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-5 | app_B/TB5_controls_soil_neighborhood.do              | app_B/TB5_controls_soil_neighborhood.(tex,txt) |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-6 | Table2_hsnp_aid.do                                   | app_B/TB6_relief_full_cell.(tex,txt)           |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-7 | app_B/TB7_aid_robustness.do                          | app_B/TB7_aid_robustness.(tex,txt)             |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-8 | app_B/TB8_alt_drought_proxy_dmp_ai.do                | app_B/TB8_dmp_ai.(tex,txt)                     |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-9 | app_B/TB9_2SLS.do                                    | app_B/TB9_2sls.(tex,txt)                       |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-10 | app_B/TB10_mn24_results.do                          | app_B/TB10_MN2024.(tex,txt)                    |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-11 | F8b_EA_results.do                                   | app_B/TB11_EA_full.(tex,txt)                   |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-12 | app_B/TB12_EA_results_dummy.do                      | app_B/TB12_EA_full_dummy.(tex,txt)             |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-13 | Table3_triple_interaction.do                        | app_B/TB13_triple_int_full.(tex,txt)           |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-14 | app_B/TB14_triple_interaction_other_landuse.do      | app_B/TB14_alt_contested_landuse.(tex,txt)     |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-15 | F10b_herd_size.do                                   | app_B/TB15_herd_size.(tex,txt)                 |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-16 | F11b_asset_shock.do                                 | app_B/TB16_market_effects.(tex,txt)            |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-17 | F12b_income_shock_afb.do                            | app_B/TB17_economic_shocks.(tex,txt)           |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-18 | app_B/F13b_migration_results.do                     | app_B/TB18_migration_results.(tex,txt)         |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. B-19 | app_B/TB19_spillovers_neighboring_countries.do      | app_B/TB19_EA_spillovers.(tex,txt)             |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Tab. C-1   | app_C/TC1_top_actors_associated_rain_median.R   (RA)    | app_C/TC1_top_actors_associates.(tex,txt)       |                                    | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Fig. C-1 | app_C/FC1_top_actors_associated_rain_median.R     (RA)    | app_C/FC1_legend_only.png                      |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1civ_incidents_map_rain_median.png     |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1pol_incidents_map_rain_median.png     |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1riot_incidents_map_rain_median.png    |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1prot_incidents_map_rain_median.png    |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1uag_incidents_map_rain_median.png     |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1alsh_incidents_map_rain_median.png    |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1icm_incidents_map_rain_median.png     |                                                                    |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1pem_incidents_map_rain_median.png     |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1mif_incidents_map_rain_median.png     |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|  
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1mm_incidents_map_rain_median.png      |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|   
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1mem_incidents_map_rain_median.png     |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1tum_incidents_map_rain_median.png     |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1uem_incidents_map_rain_median.png     |                                                                    |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1sem_incidents_map_rain_median.png     |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC1gem_incidents_map_rain_median.png     |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Fig. C-2 | app_C/FC2_conflict_pastoral_incidents.R     (RA)          | app_C/FC2_legend_only.png                      |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC2_I_d_pastoral_a_incidents_map_rain.png|                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC2_I_d_pastoral_n_incidents_map_rain.png|                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC2_I_d_pastoral_b_incidents_map_rain.png|                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC2_I_livestock_incidents_map_rain.png   |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC2_I_gpt4_pastoral_incidents_map_rain.png |                                                                                              | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_C/FC2_I_gpt4_livestock_incidents_map_rain.png|                                                                                              | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
| Fig. D-1 |  app_D/FD1_quantification.do                         | app_D/FD1_quantification.pdf                   |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
|          |                                                      | app_D/FD1b_quantification_p.pdf                |                                                                                               | 
|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|  
 
 

 {./figures_tables/}} \\
\subfloat[Based on pastoral incidents]{\includegraphics[trim= 0 0 0 0 clip, width=0.9\textwidth] {./figures_tables/}} \\




Note: The do-files and R-files mentioned above generate "raw" versions of the tables in the paper, final style adjustments to headers and names were made manually using LaTeX.

The numbers provided in the text in the paper come from other sources or can be reproduced by code in this replication package as specified below:

- 
  

## Acknowledgements

This readme  was adapted from Bluhm et al. (2025, AEJ: Applied) and follows the template provided by [https://social-science-data-editors.github.io/template_README/](https://social-science-data-editors.github.io/template_README/).

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